AI Boom Drives Global Trade to Record High

The global trade landscape is experiencing unexpected resilience, driven by a surge in demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure, according to the latest DHL Globalization Tracker report. This growth is occurring despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Iran-Korea war and existing tariffs, presenting a notable shift in the dynamics of international commerce.

The report reveals that global merchandise trade grew at a faster pace in the first half of 2026 than in any comparable period in the last 15 years—excluding the volatile COVID-19 era. A key driver of this expansion is the strong demand for goods essential to building AI infrastructure, such as semiconductors and data transmission technology. In 2025, trade in these goods accounted for 42% of overall merchandise trade growth, rising to 76% in the first quarter of 2026.

While the Iran-Korea war and associated disruptions to key trade routes, like the Straight of Hormuz, have impacted specific economies – Saudi Arabia experienced a 37% decline in trade value and the UAE a 7% decline in the first five months of 2026 – the overall global impact has been contained. Similarly, US tariffs, reaching their highest levels in decades, have had limited global effect, in part because the US accounts for only 13% of worldwide imports and roughly half were exempt from tariffs as of August 2026. Many countries opted to pursue new trade agreements to diversify markets rather than engage in widespread retaliatory measures.

The DHL Globalization Tracker forecasts an average annual growth rate of 3.4% for global merchandise trade through 2029, exceeding the 2.7% average of the previous decade. This optimistic outlook suggests the resilience of global trade, even amidst ongoing challenges. The report also notes a record level of globalization, reaching 25.8% in 2025, reflecting increased interconnectedness across trade, capital, information, and people. East Asia and the Pacific region led growth, with a 24% increase in trade value during the first five months of 2026.

The report highlights a decoupling trend between the US and China, with their direct trade share falling from 3.5% of global trade in 2015 to 1.6% in the first five months of 2026. However, this does not necessarily indicate a broader fragmentation of the global economy. The analysis shows that global trade continues to thrive, buoyed by the expansion of AI and the adaptability of businesses in navigating geopolitical and economic shifts.