Rheinmetall Shares Plunge as Guidance is Cut Again

Rheinmetall shares plummeted on Thursday after the company announced another reduction in its full-year revenue guidance, this time to approximately €13.2 billion, down from a previous range of €13.7 to €14.2 billion. The revision stems from anticipated delays in both the Arminius project – the modernization of the German Army’s Boxer armored vehicle fleet – and the acceptance testing of artillery ammunition, pushing expected revenue into the new year.

The stock experienced a dramatic drop, falling as much as 18% in early trading and closing down 15.2% at €850.90, reaching its lowest level since February 2025. This decline caps a year of significant underperformance for Rheinmetall, with the stock price nearly halving from its peak of €2,008 just over a year ago. JPMorgan analyst David Perry had anticipated a share price drop, noting this marks the fifth revenue or profit warning in eleven months, fueling concerns about the company’s long-term prospects.

Beyond the immediate guidance cut, analysts are increasingly skeptical of Rheinmetall’s ambitious joint venture goals. While Perry acknowledges the overall strategy isn't flawed, he believes the previously stated targets are unrealistic. This sentiment is reflected in lowered price targets from analysts at JPMorgan and Citigroup, highlighting a growing disconnect between the company’s aspirations and perceived feasibility. Despite the lowered guidance, Rheinmetall still anticipates a revenue increase compared to the previous year’s €9.94 billion.

The repeated downgrades and resulting stock decline underscore a pattern of project delays impacting Rheinmetall’s financial performance, a challenge first surfacing with the cancellation of the F126-frigate project in August. These recent setbacks, coupled with the persistent delays in the Arminius project – a theme seen in prior disclosures dating back to 2025 – raise questions about Rheinmetall’s ability to reliably execute on large-scale defense contracts and deliver on its projected growth.